Deep inside the White House, in a bare room that the chief of staff uses for meetings, David Simas is still thinking about turnout.
Turnout has been Simas’s job for years now. As director of public-opinion research and polling for President Obama’s reelection campaign, Simas was at the center of the effort to find and persuade young and minority voters to go to the polls like they did in 2008.
Many doubted the Obama campaign’s contention that it could recapture the 2008 electorate. Simas’s data, however, convinced the campaign that was possible. And when the smoke cleared, young voters and minorities did show up to the polls, and Obama won.
Now Simas, a sad-eyed Massachusetts native with a facility for PowerPoints, needs to reach those same groups again — with a much harder ask. This time, he doesn’t just need them to vote. He needs them to buy health insurance, and, in some cases, spend hundreds of dollars a month for it. If they don’t, the new insurance marketplaces — the absolute core of Obamacare — will be filled with older, sicker people, and premiums will skyrocket. And if that happens, the law will fail.
The debate over Obamacare often focuses on the law’s complexity. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has taken to pushing around a seven-foot stack of paper showing the tens of thousands of pages of regulations it has spawned. Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) has warned that implementing such an intricate statute could be a “train wreck.”
But to the White House, the difference between success and failure is straightforward: They need to entice a sufficient number of young and healthy adults into the new insurance marketplaces that open Oct. 1.
How many younger people are needed each year to hold down premiums depends on how many people sign up for the marketplaces. If the total this year is 7 million people, then about 2.7 million need to be in the 18-to-35 set.
This, then, is the crux of Obamacare’s challenge: Can the federal government persuade young, healthy people to buy health insurance?
Simas is focusing his formidable analytical resources on understanding this group. He begins clicking through a Powerpoint that holds reams of data on these young adults. “What do we know about them?” he says. “They’re overwhelmingly male.” Click. “They’re majority nonwhite.” Click. “One out of every three lives in California, Florida or Texas.” Click. “We have census maps breaking this down into the smallest geographic units.”
A couple more clicks and Simas is showing which television channels they like to watch (Spike TV, among others), which social-media platforms they use (Twitter, Facebook) and who they listen to (“No surprise. It’s mom.”). “We can figure out the message that works best for this group,” Simas says.
The focus on young, minority voters. The heavy reliance on microtargeting. The enthusiasm about nontraditional communications channels. The analytics-rich modeling. It sounds like the Obama campaign. And administration officials don’t shy away from the comparison.
“When I hear the conventional wisdom about Obamacare,” said Jeanne Lambrew, deputy assistant to the president for health policy, “this is the difference between the Karl Roves who put their fingers to the wind and the Nate Silvers of the world who looked at the numbers.”
But the effort will have to go far beyond engineering turnout among key demographics. The administration needs to build more insurance marketplaces than they ever expected, and create an unprecedented IT infrastructure that lets the federal government’s computers seamlessly talk to the (often ancient) systems used in state Medicaid offices. They need to fend off repeal efforts from congressional Republicans — like Wednesday’s vote to delay the individual mandate — and somehow work with red-state bureaucracies that want to see Obamacare fail. And they can’t escape the fact that the law, three years after passage, remains stubbornly unpopular.
Amid these challenges, critics say the administration is simply defining success down. “Their job in 2013 is to declare victory in any way possible,” said Doug Holtz-Eakin, president of the conservative American Action Forum. “They’ll keep moving goal posts until they can declare victory.” Holtz-Eakin noted that the administration has recently delayed significant parts of the bill, like the employer mandate. “It’s an admission that the whole thing can’t be implemented,” he said.
Over the course of three months and in dozens of interviews for this article — with Obama administration officials, state-level implementers, outside experts, steadfast critics and others — two distinct and contradictory views emerged: One, of confident Obama administration officials focused on building its marketplaces and ignoring the naysayers in Washington, who they believe simply don’t understand the law. Another, of Obamacare’s increasingly confident critics, who believe the law is collapsing under its own weight and feel themselves more vindicated by the day.
Caught between those two sides are the state-level bureaucrats and technology consultants who have 76 days left to set up the biggest health-coverage expansion in decades.
“In 2011, there was this ‘we’re going to save the world’ mentality,” said Rebecca Pearce, executive director of the Maryland Health Benefit Exchange. “In 2013, it focuses more on ‘How do we deliver on the requirements of the law?’”
By Phil Galewitz and Julie Appleby, Kaiser Health News
Posted July 18, 2013, at 6:49 a.m.
WASHINGTON — Ratcheting up the campaign to sell the health law, President Barack Obama was expected to deliver a speech Thursday touting how individuals buying insurance in new online marketplaces this fall will pay lower-than-projected premiums on average in at least 10 states and the District of Columbia.
The remarks piggyback on the announcement Wednesday that New York State regulators have approved health insurance rates for individual policies for 2014 that are at least half the cost of current policies on average.
The administration released a fact sheet Thursday showing that average insurance premiums for individuals buying health insurance on their own and small employers will be lower than previously projected not just in New York, but in at least nine other states and the District of Columbia.
Premiums on average will be 18 percent less expensive in those states than projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, according to the analysis by the U.S Department of Health and Human Services. Still, some people will pay more than they do now, while others will see greater savings.
Proposed and final premium rates from California, Colorado, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and D.C. were included because they have been publicly reported. However, those states are not necessarily representative of the rest of the country, since most , though not all of them, are supportive of the law and are running their own insurance marketplaces.
The analysis comes as the White House pushes back at critics of the health law, who have long said that its fees, broad benefit requirements and other rules will cause rates to skyrocket.On Wednesday, the Republican-led House of Representatives also approved largely symbolic legislation to delay the controversial mandate that most Americans carry health insurance.
Obama is also expected Thursday to say millions of Americans are already benefiting from the law, partly through a provision that requires insurers to pay rebates to consumers if they fail to spend at least 20 percent of their premiums on medical care. Some of the people who have benefited are expected to join the president at the event.
“Anything that is good news for the law is helpful politically,” said Sara Rosenbaum, health policy professor at George Washington University.
Others cautioned that the report averages premium costs and actual premium prices are likely to vary widely. “The impact of the ACA will vary considerably depending on a person’s age, gender, health status, and where they live,” said Robert Zirkelbach, spokesman for the America’s Health Insurance Plans. “Simply looking at averages doesn’t tell you what these reforms are going to mean for a particular person in a particular state.”
In a Culture of Disrespect, Patients Lose Out
By DANIELLE OFRI, M.D.
I’ve always thought about respect as common decency, something we should do because it’s simply the right thing to do. In the medical world, we certainly need to strive for respectful behavior, especially given our historically rigid pecking order, our ingrained traditions of hierarchical bullying and, of course, a primary constituency — patients — who are often on uniquely vulnerable footing.
But then I stumbled across two articles in
Academic Medicine that talked about respect as an issue of patient safety. The authors, a group of doctors and researchers at Harvard Medical School, outlined the myriad acts of disrespect that we’ve come to accept as a way of life in medicine, and showed how these can lead to a final pathway of harm to our patients.
This shift in perspective was a shock to the system. When we tolerate a culture of disrespect, we aren’t just being insensitive, or obtuse, or lazy, or enabling. We’re in fact violating the first commandment of medicine. How can we stand idly by when our casual acceptance of disrespect is causing the same harm to our patients as medication errors, surgical mistakes, handoff lapses and missed lab results?
At one end of the spectrum are the examples of disrespectful behavior, like the volatile doctor everyone knows to steer clear of. Then there are the sadly common abuses of hierarchy — the doctor denigrating a nurse, the medical student treated like disposable goods.
Beyond these are the even more widespread passive types of disrespect, the behaviors that don’t ever get reported and are hardly noticed because they are so ingrained in the culture of medicine. Dismissive attitudes — toward other members of the medical team, toward students, toward administrators, toward patients — are as corrosive as outward manifestations of disrespect.
“Lack of respect poisons the well of collegiality and cooperation,” the authors of the articles wrote. The poisoning-of-the-well metaphor is apt. Like pornography, we know it when we see it. Ask a nurse or an intern or a medical student, and they can tell you with pinpoint accuracy which areas of the hospital are toxic to work in, and which are not. Now think of the patients who have the misfortune to be stuck in one of those toxic areas. It’s not just unpalatable; it’s unsafe.
Doctors have to take a good deal of the blame. For better or worse, we often set the tone in a medical enterprise. When we show, or tolerate, even subtle disrespect, it works its way all along the chain.
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